Wednesday, January 30, 2013

The Decision-Making Theory of Money

Reading carefully your previous post on the Water Analogy for the Economy, I would propose that it makes implicit use of the Resource Model of money. I can see that this theory of money is certainly valid in certain contexts, however I would maintain that it only captures part of the modern concept.
Suppose that we have an economy consisting of just one resource - say wheat. A certain number of people (call them farmers) make a bunch of wheat, which they give to other people in exchange for services such as harvesting the wheat, carrying the wheat etc. Some people take their wheat and store it in a silo in their back yard - this is your 'capital' or 'savings'. Other people use it to buy other services, or eat it. Along comes the government and they take 50% of the wheat that everyone received this year, and throw it away.
Just kidding - they take the wheat and give it to people that don't have any. In this way government is 'neutral' to the economy - they don't produce or eat any wheat themselves, they just re-distribute the wheat from one person to another. So now we introduce more resources - in addition to wheat, we have carrots and shoes. To manage the exchange of all these resources we generate an abstract generic resource which we call money, exchangeable for any other resource. I would venture that a lot of people have this model in their head when they think about money - and it is unquestionably an important concept, especially of commodity money and in the origin of exchange transactions.
However there is another arguably more important aspect to money in the modern economy. Suppose that you want to answer the question "how much wheat should we plant this year?". We can answer this from a top-down perspective - a committee is formed to determine how much wheat should be planted, and the farmers are then instructed to plant this amount of wheat. Or we can answer from a bottom-up perspective, where everyone is polled for their opinion on how much wheat they want, and this information is provided to the farmers. I would argue for a key axiom that on average the quality of a decision is proportional to the number of people making that decision. Now this is not a universal truth, if we developed an artificial intelligence that was smarter than the combined intelligence of 10 billion people, then it would be best to defer to the opinion of our machine overlords. However in the world of human beings, in general the more people that are involved in making a decision, the better the final decision will be. Money provides this function by aggregating the desires of the entire population and signalling this to the farmers via price. This process operates continuously across all resources, answering questions such as "how many shoes do we need?", "is it better to plant a bushel of wheat, or 5 carrots?", "is a large field in Texas better than a small field in Kansas?" etc. All these questions could in theory be answered by one, or a few individuals, but our axiom says that on average we get a better answer if we outsource the question to many people.
Now this is not a democratic process, where everyone has an equal vote. Every dollar is equal, but some people simply have more dollars than others. Money is therefore a proxy for decision-making power. The more of it you have, the more weight your decisions carry or conversely the more decisions you can make. If you have a lot of money, then you run around telling people what to do with their time and what goods to produce. In exercising your decision-making power you 'use up' your stock by delegating future decisions to other people (spending your money). Only if the decisions you make are on average good ones, do you accumulate future decision-making capability in the form of return on investments. On average, people who have accumulated capital are those who have demonstrated a track-record of good decision-making regarding what goods and services are needed. It is beneficial to the overall economy to give more weight to these people, as their past performance indicates that they are more likely to make better decisions (on average).
Now many (most?) of these decisions are self-serving. If I have a million dollars, I could decide to improve my local library, build a small clinic to provide medical services, or buy a large number of Gucci shoes. The last option provides no macro-economic benefit, the second may be beneficial if it is operated correctly - a financial return on my investment in the clinic is the signalling mechanism to tell me that I'm running it in the best way. The first option provides no return to me, but may be of important social benefit (along with services that require coordination such as roads, police etc.). We therefore put in place alternate mechanisms to ensure that these beneficial products and services are constructed by appropriating the decision-making ability of individuals through government taxation. We then bestow this decision-making power on a smaller group of people tasked with the job of making decisions in the public interest.
However in doing this we have converted bottom-up decision-making to top-down decision making, and run the risk of making bad decisions, as well as distorting the economic signalling mechanism. In the case of the wheat economy, if the government appropriates half of the decision-making, they may bias the farmers to produce too much wheat, or too little, as their knowledge of how much wheat is needed is necessarily less than the aggregate knowledge of all the individuals eating the wheat. However this may be an acceptable cost for the benefit of bypassing self-serving individualism and for long-term planning.
When viewed in this way there is no fundamental distinction between capital and income/expenditure. You have a certain amount of decision-making capability, which is your capital. You can use this to make decisions on the production of goods and services, or you may decide that no additional goods and services are required. Both of these are equally valid decisions. Encouraging additional production where none is required is as useless as discouraging needed production, so attempts to stimulate extra production are misguided, and detrimental to the macro-economy. You are substituting decision-making by the few in place of decision-making by the many.




5 comments:

  1. It's an interesting theory and a good way of looking at money but it still doesn't really change the distinction between capital and income/expenditure.
    Yes, in one definition of the term, when you decide to save your money you are making a decision, but it is a decision that still leaves you with the same amount of decision power. You can later decide again to do something else with that money. You are not consuming or reassigning your decision power by saving it. In contrast, when you decide to spend your money you lose the ability to make any further decisions with it. You are essentially consuming your decision power.

    Your final paragraph more or less encapsulates this idea in terms of macroeconomics. Saving money is essentially sending a signal that you think too many things are being made and other people should slow down on making things. Spending those savings/capital is sending the signal that not enough things are being made and people should make more. Assuming that a constant rate of making things is desirable (still an assumption since we haven't yet discussed why it is desirable but let's say that it is for now) then the role of government spending and borrowing is to alternately signal their decision that too many things are being made or that too few things are being made.

    Corporations and individuals made the same kinds of saving/spending decisions too, of course, but being smaller in scope they generally have less effect on the overall economy. Although at a municipal level a large corporation may have more influence than a city government. If GE decides to build a major plant in Smallsville, that decision will have more effect on the local economy than any government spending by the city.

    TL;DR, whether we use an analogy of water or decision power, there is a difference between hoarded capital of that thing versus spending/using/earning/acquiring that thing.

    More comments to come on other aspects of this theory.

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    1. ok so forget analogies, lets get to the core of the issue - should governments spend money during an economic downturn to stimulate the economy?
      As you already mentioned, answering 'yes, to maintain a constant flow of stuff' is an invalid response since it begs the question why maintaining a constant flow is a good thing.
      The best answer that I can come up with is that objectively it is a bad thing and that the economy suffers because of it. However it is like insurance, overall it is a net loss to the economy, but individuals are disproportionately affected by an economic downturn - some people lose everything, home, jobs, livelihood. For these people the economic downturn is a disaster. For others it's simply inconvenient. Government spending during these times helps lessen the burden on badly affected individuals, at a cost of an overall inefficiency in the economy. Assuming then that the overall cost is not too high then it should be seen as bad economics but good social policy.

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  2. Income/capital distinctions aside, while the idea of money as decision making power seems sound, I'm not sure that it is a good thing. If "on average the quality of a decision is proportional to the number of people making that decision" then concentration of decision making power in a few hands is a bad thing. That decision making power is awarded on the basis of past successful decisions doesn't do very much to mitigate that effect since:
    1. Randomly successful decisions will result in random assignment of decision making power to those least able to use it properly. For an example of this look at the 'success' of fund managers, where managers successful in one 10-year period will underperform in the next 10-year period for systemic reasons.
    2. Self interested decisions work in many types of interaction but fail chronically in other types. 'Tragedy of the commons' is the classic example but there are others. Concentration of decision making power in a few hands will lead to more cases where the self-interest of those with power results in poor overall decisions. When you have the ability to, then distorting a market will result in better outcomes for you personally than participating in that market.
    3. Even when working as intended, you eventually reach a point where the decisions of the few powerful players in any given sphere are all that matter and even if they are individually the best decision makers in that sphere, still their decisions will be inferior to the average of all participants.

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    1. The thing is what is the best way of allocating decision-making power? I think we can identify at least 4 distinct mechanisms:
      1. Collective agreement
      2. Command structure
      3. Election
      4. Money
      Collective agreement operates in (most!) family structures and small groups - it would probably have been the dominant mechanism in our EEA. However it's obviously impractical for larger groups. Command structure works for medium to large groups - it's the dominant mechanism today in companies and of course military. And election adds flavor to the command structure in large country-level organizations.
      Weaved amongst all this is the decision-making mechanism of money. Clearly the other decision-making mechanisms are capable of putting limits and restrictions on the power of money. In some cases this is desirable, as the mechanism can go 'off the rails' where money rewards only the ability to make money. However within limits I would say that the mechanism mostly works as it should, allocating decision-making power in a reasonably objective way. Without positing a benevolent super-intelligence it is hard to see how a better system could be designed in any resource-constrained situation (which really is every situation). Cases where a command-structure interferes in the money mechanism should therefore be viewed with great suspicion. Whether it is companies or governments that are making the decisions, when they appropriate money in an "outside the rules" fashion, are they really making better decisions as a result?

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    2. To answer some of your points directly - 1. Randomly successful decisions will by definition average out. There is of course 'noise' due to the randomness of decisions. However you are positing that a first (randomly) successful decision will then allow you to make more money simply by virtue of you now having money. But that is not how money works in the long term. Suppose you won the lottery and got 100 million dollars. Certainly you can do a lot of things now that you couldn't do before - you can just build a castle in the country because you feel like it. Or drive a Lamborghini. But both these activities will siphon away some of your wealth (unless you built a particularly good castle which other people wanted, thereby increasing your wealth, which would be a reward for good decisions). Leaving aside living expenses and counting just disposable income there is no reason necessarily why you would increase your overall wealth by a larger percentage than someone with a modest sum, just because you had 100 million dollars. Sure there are 'high-yield' investments you have access to, but it is questionable if these really offer better returns in the long term. It is likely that your disposable wealth as a % will follow the same long-term trend that it would have before you won the lottery. Same with wealthy individuals - one generation makes money but the next generations spend it. Long term the randomness averages out.
      2. I don't think tragedy of the commons has anything to do with the mechanism of money. It has more to do with shared property rights and poor allocation of resources. It could be solved in several different ways. With a money mechanism each person could be allocated a share of the commons and then allowed to buy and sell their shares to each other. In a command structure each person is again allocated a share and reallocated shares based on the opinion of their superiors. In a collective each person would be allocated shares and re-allocated based on need. In all cases the key is enforcement of property rights. However I think your point is that it is possible to 'cheat' the money mechanism by distorting the market 'outside the system' for example through cartels, monopolies, fraud, physical violence etc. I agree that there is no inherent mechanism to solve these issues and that they need to be addressed with non-money measures.
      3. I think your point 3 re-iterates point 1 - this only applies if acquiring money makes it easier to subsequently acquire money. However you would have to show that such an effect predominates, and I don't see it. Instead I see that individuals become wealthy, but their descendants dissipate that wealth. If there is a trend like this, then it could be countered by an appropriately scaled tax regimen, similar to how progressive taxation is supposed to work.

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